Thursday, February 26, 2015

Farewell to the guns: how to perform removal plan arms in the Donbass – RBC

In the afternoon the General Staff of Ukraine on Thursday announced that the withdrawal begins 100-millimeter guns on the demarcation line. “This is the first step towards withdrawal of heavy weapons will occur exclusively in the monitoring and verification of the OSCE”, – stated in the General Staff. Representatives of the self-proclaimed DNR and LC announced a withdrawal of troops earlier in the week.

According to the February Minsk agreements, removal of arms was to begin no later than the second day after the cease-fire and end within 14 days. Ukrainian troops should withdraw weapons from the actual line of contact, and the militia – the line agreed in September last year.

What is withdrawn

The first stage will be discharged 100-millimeter guns, they will depart for one day at a distance of 25 km, told the TV channel “112 Ukraine” press officer of the group sector “M” Ukrainian security forces raid Dmitry Chaly. In the next step the more powerful cannon will depart at a greater distance, he said.

The head of the breakaway LC Igor Carpenter said Thursday that the LC looked away from the line of contact for almost 80% of heavy weapons to be withdrawn. Which he did not say. In the evening, the head of the self-proclaimed DNR Alexander Zakharchenko said that from the territory of the DNI were allocated 90% of the weapons – artillery, mortars, etc., according to news agency Donetsk.

According to Minsky arrangements weapons discharged by equal distances in order to create a security zone width of at least 50 km to the caliber artillery systems 100 mm safety zone width of 70 km and a width for the MLRS 140 km for the MLRS “Tornado-S”, “Hurricane,” “Twister” and tactical missile systems “Point” (“Point Do ») .

Allied Commander of NATO forces in Europe, US Gen. Philip Breedlove at the hearings in the US Congress on Wednesday said that there is strong evidence that the Russian artillery crossed the border in eastern Ukraine in the early stages of the conflict that was handed over thousands of Russian military equipment on the territory of Ukraine, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, heavy artillery and other military equipment. The Russian side is similar statements repeatedly denied.

Terms and conditions for drainage and monitoring

Representatives of Kiev in the last days said that the withdrawal will begin after the “silent mode” will be respected at least two of the day, but then reduced the waiting time to a day. On Wednesday and Thursday of the Kiev military pointed out that in the area of ​​ATO was not a single victim, although attacks by militias continue. “For the second day in a row, we are seeing a decrease in the intensity of the attacks. We reach this main purpose of execution of the first paragraph of Minsk agreements – the cease-fire. Who created all the conditions so that we can prepare for the second paragraph Minsk Agreement – withdrawal of heavy weapons, “- said Thursday at a briefing in Kiev representative of the National Security Council Andrei Lysenko (quoted by Interfax).

In some areas the shelling continued . On Mariupol direction, according to Chaly, Wednesday ATO position in Shirokino underwent two tank attacks by militias, and the positions in the area Chermalyk – two shelled with mortars and small arms.

special representative of the OSCE monitoring mission in Ukraine Michael Botsyurkiv on Thursday cited data on ceasefire violations in Happiness and Red Ray Luhansk region. However, the overall situation is satisfactory, should the words OSCE Chairman, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia Ivica Dacic.

The OSCE report dated February 25, states that joint center to monitor and coordinate, located in Soledar, Russian Colonel-General has provided a copy of the mission schedules removal DNR and LC, and Ukrainian – the schedule of the armed forces of Ukraine. These charts do not seem agreed or approved jointly. The report also stated that on February 24 in the area of ​​Makeyevka motion has been detected weapons: 16 military trucks unmarked with 122mm howitzers were moving east towards the center of Makeyevka, and between Amvrosiyivka and Ilovaiskaya – ten trucks with 152 mm howitzers.

The Russian Foreign Ministry took the report “with appreciation”, noting that it shows the beginning of the withdrawal of weapons. However, the concern of the Russian ministry called “unreasonable demands” parties to the conflict to provide complete data on the locations of weapons, routes and time of their removal and storage areas.

Full distrust

Kiev does not trust the reports of militias that they actually withdrawn their artillery. Ukrainian side can not confirm the withdrawal of troops separatists their heavy weapons from the contact line, said RBC representative of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Andriy Lysenko. According to him, «there are allegations from their leaders about this, but this diversion is not even invited observers from the OSCE.”

The separatists did not withdraw troops and regroup them, says Ukrainian military expert Alex Arestovich : they are “cool big carousel” – tanks and equipment under the camera discharged 40-50 km, there is a part, and the part of Russia and received new weapons neatly factory, there is a constant concentration of troops. Visibility withdrawal of troops they need in order to maintain the appearance of the Minsk performance agreements to prevent the start of the supply of weapons to Ukraine from abroad, according to Arestovich . Kiev is also interested in the implementation of the Minsk Agreement, which is partially linked to financial assistance.

The main problem – lack of confidence in the party who are afraid and do not want to report the number of weapons, their current location and place was given, commented military expert Alexander Goltz . However, in the afternoon DNR representative Edward Basurin said breakaway Republic would not object to the OSCE permanent access to places of withdrawal of heavy weapons. Botsyurkiv also reported that the observers mission ascertain movement of weapons, particularly tanks.

The process of removal of the arms will go hard, but the parties to the conflict at this stage close to exhaustion forces and are interested in long-term respite, says Goltz. He notes that the removal of the arms does not mean the withdrawal of troops: this is only a cessation of major combat operations, because without artillery and rocket launchers to lead them with the same intensity impossible.

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